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There Will Not Be a Crypto Market Boom at the End of 2018. Here’s Why.

Most people believe that the crypto market will surge at the closing days of 2018. That belief has been revised many times in the last months and as it is fading as the year end closes.  It is difficult to accept that with so much corporate interest and investment, that the market continues to struggle. But the reality is that all the proposed catalysts have either failed or missed their mark entirely. Bakkt, the Bitcoin ETF, OTC markets, and low trading volume decidedly killed any chance for recovery before 2019.

Bakkt

Time simply ran out for the two principal catalysts of the market: Bakkt and the Bitcoin ETF. Bakkt, the upcoming crypto exchange backed by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Microsoft, and Starbucks was scheduled to launch in November. The launch date was later refined to December 12; only 18 days before year’s end. And its starting products will be physically-delivered Bitcoin Futures contracts, not trading. This means that the start of operations will have no positive effect on the crypto market. On the contrary, it might affect it further. Also, it will take time for Bakkt to reach full operational capacity. So there will be little the exchange can contribute until the Spring 2019.

Bitcoin ETF

In addition, time also ran out for the anticipated approval of a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. The CBOE VanEck SolidX filed for a Bitcoin ETF on June 26, 2018 but the SEC postponed it several times. The next decision date is December 29th; too late for it to have any effect on the market before the year’s end.

OTC

Another unanticipated factor affecting market growth is the heavy over-the-counter purchase. All hopes of recovery lay with institutional investment. And the wave of institutional interest uplifted even the most depressed projections. But for the most part, most expected institutional purchases to be done through exchanges, but this wasn’t so. Therefore, the volume and price remains unchanged.

Volume

Finally, the market will not improve before the end of the year because trading volume remains low. There just isn’t enough capital exchanging hands for crypto. No matter how good projects and plans are, without transactions, the market isn’t going anywhere.

Analysis

2018 was an extremely disappointing year for the majority of investors. Retail and institutional investors alike suffered the brutal 70 to 80% drop in prices. And both classes endured throguhout the year hoping for a Spring, Summer, Autum, and lastly a Winter price breakout. But this never happened. Instead, the resiliance of the bull market prevailed. And the hope placed on the aforementioned catalysts fell to dust. A market recovery before the year is extremely unlikely but not impossible. The last two months of the year are usually the start of a market rally. But based on the lack of new evidence and the low marketcap, recovery will have to wait until 2019

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